Overview: India set to become world’s most populous country!

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According to a report by the United Nations, India is all set to surpass China to become the world’s most populous country by 2023. 

The fertility rates in China have declined considerably in the past few years, the country is expected to witness an absolute decline in population in the year 2023. The gap between the two countries is expected to grow further. By 2050, India is predicted to have a population of 1.668 billion, on the other hand, the Chinese population is expected to reduce to 1.317 billion.

The predictions were made as a part of the World Population Prospects Report. It was released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 

As per the report, the world’s population had crossed the 8 billion mark by November 15. By 2050, Earth will be home to 9.7 billion human beings. 8 countries are expected to contribute to half of the increase in population from present day to 2050. 

It is predicted that the world’s population will hit 10.4 billion by the 2080s and is expected to stabilize around that number by the end of the century.

Contrastingly, there has been a decline in ‘population growth’ across the globe. In 2020, the global population rate had fallen under 1 per cent per year for the first time since 1950. There has been a stark decline in global fertility rates as well. It came down from 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births per woman in 2021. The number is expected to decline further to just 2.1 births by 2050. 

The report gives a clear indication that actions by the government to push population control measures in the present day is not really going to have a major impact on growth over the next few decades.

However, there are forecasts of population decline in several parts of the world. As a result of sustained low levels of fertility, the populations of 61 countries are expected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050. Countries such as Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Latvia are expected to see population declines of 20 percent or more by 2050.

According to the report, the global life expectancy at birth has steadily increased in the past few decades. It shot up considerably between 1990 and 2019 to reach 72.8 years. However there was a slight slump in the number in 2021 owing to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Overtaking China could be significant


Being the most populated country in the world can strengthen India’s claim of securing a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. 

According to few experts, despite being a poor and largely uneducated country, India managed a healthy demographic transition through family planning.

  • One in five people below 25 years on Earth are from India.
  • 47 percent of Indians fall below the age of 25.
  • It should be noted that two-third of Indians were born post liberalization in early 1990s.
  • They are touted to be the largest consumer and labor source in the knowledge and network goods economy.
  • Indians are going to be the largest pool of global talent.



Population index
  • As per the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), only a mere 40 percent of India’s working-age people work or want to work.
  • Working-age women constitute only 10 percent of the country’s total labor force.
  • Around 200 million Indians have migrated within the nation so far. If not managed properly, rising migrant population might eventually lead to creation of more slums and result in spread of diseases.
  • In the long run, a skewed sex ratio will have an adverse impact on the progress of our nation.
  • The increasing old age population is a worrying trend. The rising elderly population will be a burden on the government’s resources; family structures will have to be recast accordingly.

Let’s hope for the best as India is on the brink of becoming the most populous country in the world!


Read more:Types of Smog

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